Economist Nathan Perry - Full Circle Podcast with The Christi Reece Group

Christi sits down with Economist and Colorado Mesa University Professor, Nathan Perry, for this month's Full Circle Podcast. They discuss the Grand Valley economy and demographics, the impact of AI on jobs, and a whole lot more for this fascinating episode!

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Transcript

Christi Reece: 0:05

The Full Circle Podcast. Compelling interviews and incredible tales from Colorado's Western Slope, from the mountains to the desert. Christi Reece and her team hear from the movers, shakers, and characters of the Grand Valley and surrounding mountain towns that make the Western Slope the place we all love. You'll learn, you'll laugh, you'll love with the Full Circle. Hi everyone, and welcome back to the Full Circle Podcast. I'm your host, Christi Reece, and I'm really excited today to have as our guest Nathan Perry, an economist here in the Grand Junction area and also professor of economics at Colorado Mesa University. Welcome.

Nathan Perry: 0:38

Yeah, thanks for having me.

Christi Reece: 0:39

Yeah. If you are a member of the business community here anywhere on the Western Slope, um, you might have heard of Nathan Perry, and he does a lot of speaking about Western Slope economics and um uh especially rural communities. Is that right, Nathan?

Nathan Perry: 0:55

Yeah.

Christi Reece: 0:55

I mean, that's what we have a lot of on the Western Slope.

Nathan Perry: 0:58

That's right. So we cover the Western Slope. Mm-hmm.

Christi Reece: 1:00

And um tell us, let's start with a little bit about your background and um your uh education and how you got to Grand Junction.

Nathan Perry: 1:09

Sure. Um I was born and raised in Salt Lake City. Um, blue-collar family, so my dad runs a welding business.

Christi Reece: 1:15

Uh-huh.

Nathan Perry: 1:16

So I know how to weld. I grew up pipe fitting and um, you know, working on construction sites. And, you know, I was good at school, had a really high GPA, so I went to college and uh wasn't sure what I wanted to do after I finished my undergraduate, um, but I had done a low-income advocacy internship. So I worked for a place called the Urban Community Center, and I did a bunch of low-income advocacy research and some legislative lobbying, which was kind of cool as a you know 21-year-old.

Christi Reece: 1:46

And this was in Salt Lake City?

Nathan Perry: 1:47

This was in Salt Lake. And um, and the person who I worked for on that internship said, wow, you know, you'd be really good at a PhD in economics. And I wasn't sure what I wanted to do at that point. I wasn't sure if I was gonna follow my dad into construction, if I was gonna It's a big change. I uh well, you know, I was lucky to have options, I guess. But uh now I thought about a master's in finance, I thought about going to law school, and but anyway, she wrote me this incredible letter, and I ended up getting into a PhD program, not only just getting in, but they waived tuition and gave me funding to be a TA, and I just thought that was too good of a deal to uh pass up, and it was at the you know very old age of 22 that that happened, which was way too young to start graduate school.

Christi Reece: 2:35

Aaron Powell Did you understand the occupational opportunities that might be available to you as an economist?

Nathan Perry: 2:42

You know, I was interested in policy, I was interested in data, I was interested in finance. Um, you know, when you're 22, you don't really know until you get into the world. You know, it's easy for me to say in my 40s what that is to a student because I've I've worked in this career and I I can see the paths that people go, but when you're 22, you just get I just hope I get a job, right?

Christi Reece: 3:03

Yeah, something that pays the bills. Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 3:05

And so I I'd worked at American Express for five years, which is a really great experience. And um, I mean they just gave me money, and so I just went to the PhD in economics. Yeah.

Christi Reece: 3:19

Awesome. And so, and how did you get to Grand Junction?

Nathan Perry: 3:22

Yeah, so in 2010, I finished my PhD, and uh I basically drew a circle around Salt Lake City, where my and my wife's family is from, and I said, here's a half a day's drive, and here's where I'm going to live. And this uh school that I never heard of called Mesa State College had an opening that year. And I threw an app out and came out here and interviewed and ended up getting the job, which in 2010, you know, the Great Recession, uh felt very fortunate to get a job. You know, I have multiple friends that were unemployed for multiple years.

Christi Reece: 3:59

In the economics field, you mean? No, just in general.

Nathan Perry: 4:02

Across the board. Yeah. Um, and so, and even in academic jobs were hard to get. You know, I was willing to work in banking, which was zero jobs. Um, you know, I was really good at teaching in graduate school. Uh I taught a lot of classes, um, which is abnormal. Usually you don't teach a whole lot during grad school, but I liked it and I was good at it. And so I had a good teaching resume, and I took the job and moved out here and been here since.

Christi Reece: 4:31

And and since you started teaching here, you opened your own economic advisory company, correct?

Nathan Perry: 4:37

Um well, you know, I I do a few things. So it so obviously I teach economics for CMU, which is amazing. And then we run what we call right now the Economics Center. And um so the Economics Center focuses on these economic newsletters. So let me maybe go a little bit further back if you don't mind. Yeah, please. You know, when I moved here in 2010, I got asked all sorts of interesting questions about the economy, and some of them were kind of crazy, you know, just people throwing out anecdotal evidence and data that I thought, man, there's no way that that's true.

Christi Reece: 5:16

And so Are you speaking of a local economy?

Nathan Perry: 5:18

Yeah. Yeah. So some people say, well, you know, oil and gas is 60% of the economy here. Oh, this industry is, you know, that and I'm like, that's both of those things are completely wrong. And so, you know, around 2014, you know, because when you start your academic career, you need to publish papers. That's just part of what we do. We got to show that we're experts and that we can do it. So I I spent the first few years really focusing on uh publishing, but um I started to notice more and more as I got to know the community, there's this need for data so people could make decisions. And, you know, there's data all over the place, but nobody knows where to find it. And some data, you know, you have to calculate yourself. And so um in the past, there had been these economic newsletters that were conducted. And um around 2016 by whom? By the chamber or no, uh CMU did it in the 90s and then a little bit in the 2000s. And um, excuse me. And so around 2016, there was a request to do them. I think it was from the uh from City Council, and um, you know, we just kind of ended up doing it in our own way at CMU. Started with Mesa County, then Montrose, and then Delta, and now um, you know, Garfield, Rio Blanco, uh Moffitt, and Route County. So we're looking at doing more. We want to expand what we do at the Economic Center. Uh we kind of have a new name we're working on. I don't want to talk about it till you know it's it's formal, but we're hoping to get more faculty involved other than just you know being the Nate Perry show and see if we can uh expand what we do. I'm kind of I'm pretty tapped out in terms of hours. I think everybody in the community knows that. But I think that if we get other people involved, we can do more interesting regional research. Um so I'm really excited about that.

Christi Reece: 7:09

And is the Western slope, can you um use that as a geographic region as a whole as opposed to the eastern slope or you know, just half of Colorado? Does that make sense to you? I mean, are we we lumping all of those counties together plus all the way up to the border north and south?

Nathan Perry: 7:27

Yeah, I think you know, Colorado is an interesting state. Um it's really like three or four different economies. You know, you have Western Colorado, and you can lump the mountain towns in, but I think that's their own area. You know, you kind of have this sliver of mountain towns just east of us that really have their own economic issues and things that drive their local economy. And then you get to the front range, and that's gigantic, and you know, there's aerospace and all these other things driving that. But then southern Colorado really kind of has a unique um it's a unique region and has a unique economy, and then the eastern plains are also unique.

Christi Reece: 8:06

Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 8:07

And so, you know, there are a lot of people who are covering the state of Colorado. You can Google online people who, you know, there's all sorts of policy wonks in Denver that are covering the Colorado data, but nobody was covering the Western Slope. And I think people here were interested in having some data to try and know what's going on.

Christi Reece: 8:26

Right like you said, you met a lot of people who were giving you all this anecdotal uh information and there wasn't really anything to support it.

Nathan Perry: 8:34

Yeah, that's right.

Christi Reece: 8:36

So that's what you've started doing.

Nathan Perry: 8:37

Yeah, and so and then it went from newsletters, you know, I started doing a lot of studies. Um, I did a country jam study in 2014, and that kind of got things going for me. My colleague Tim Casey in Political Science, wonderful man, um got me on some of his uh BLM research, Bureau of Land Management Research, and we did some really cool studies together, uh including a real estate study where we looked at the uh value of homes and how natural amenities impact the value of those homes. You know, I I lived up in the ridges, I rented in the ridges my first year, four years here, and uh excuse me. And um, you know, I I loved the house we lived in. And I I asked the landlord, I'm like, hey, you know, would you sell me this house? And she says she's a great person. Um but she uh she said, well, you know, it's really close to trails, and so that pushes the price up, and it's close to the golf course, so that pushes the price up. And you're like really throwing these numbers out, and I thought, you know what, I'm gonna exactly quantify that. So and so that's what we did in this study. Um kind of a fun study that shows that if you know you build a trail system around a house, it can actually drastically up the value, or if you know you have an existing trail system, um price goes up.

Christi Reece: 9:58

I think we're um we're so lucky to have the data that you are providing, but um in so many different ways. Um uh you've done some economic impact studies on energy, outdoor recreation, festivals, sports events, and nonprofits, and I'm sure other things as well.

Nathan Perry: 10:16

Yeah. So, you know, we did the Bureau of Land Management uh research with uh Dr. Casey. So, you know, we've done all the trail systems and we've looked at natural amenities. Um we worked with the outdoor rec industry here to try and accurately measure. It's really the first county-level study of outdoor recreation. It's kind of unique because a lot of people think that's just tourism, but we looked at tourism and business activity that are outdoor rec related. Because you know, outdoor rec it encompasses several industries. Yeah, it's it's not an industry, it's kind of a you know, there are several industries that can be considered uh outdoor rec.

Christi Reece: 10:56

And so and then there's some that are kind of adjacent.

Nathan Perry: 10:58

Yeah, that's right. And so we we sent out some survey data, um, sent out some surveys, got some great data. We're able to figure out the tourism impact, the business impact, you know, we had some complicated uh methodological issues in there that we sorted through, and you know, we've got we've had that um technical report posted for three or four years. We've actually we're trying to publish it right now in a journal. Oh, great, which I think is kind of neat. So um, but yeah, I've you know, I've looked at uh done a lot of energy stuff, so worked with um Craig and Hayden up in northwest Colorado, trying to, you know, because coal's going away in that area. And so how do we solve that economic problem? Because that's a big economic problem.

Christi Reece: 11:40

Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 11:41

And um, you know, how do you do it in a way that's apolitical, which is, you know, another thing I've really tried to to stick with is how do I do research that I don't know, doesn't that is useful to society, but giving a perspective on the numbers without it being perceived as a political. I mean, it it's so easy to read the news and to see, you know, some professor back east, you know, spouting his opinion on whatnot as though that's I I just don't think that's useful. And so I've ri tried really hard to be really transparent about how I approach things and to provide useful information. But the Northwest Colorado stuff's been some of my favorite work because when those coal mines close and when the power plant closes, there's going to be a big economic hole. And so I've been involved in a couple studies that uh are trying to help plug that hole, you know, measure the losses, and then what do we need to do to recover those losses over the next 10 years.

Christi Reece: 12:43

Well, could you talk a little bit about the energy sector here? Because that was a big study that you did to show what percentage of our overall economy it took um it took part in, and um, how is that changing? And how has it changed over the last year?

Nathan Perry: 12:58

Yeah, so it's interesting because I was asked, you know, I was talking about the questions I was asked earlier, and you know, there's really two or three of them. One is how big is outdoor rec? Another question I get all the time is how many remote workers? And I st I still wish I could answer that question. I can't. Um and then so how big is outdoor rec and how big is oil and gas? Those are the two questions. And uh I I get asked about ag quite a bit. I have an ag study coming out, so now I've answered all the questions, I can retire. So wait, we have to redo them every few years, right? Yes, if it's useful. Um so the oil and gas study that you're referencing back in what, I think I used 2017 data, published that in 2019. Um, you know, that was an attempt to figure out, you know, how big currently is oil and gas in the peons basin. And because the thing with that industry is it's not just the oil workers. There are a ton of supply chain effects. What we call the multiplier on oil and gas is very high. When things ramp up in oil and gas, uh you start to see a lot of jobs created that scales beyond what other industries can create because there's so much money.

Christi Reece: 14:06

So much money.

Nathan Perry: 14:07

And people in this town know that. If you live through, you know, 2005, through you know, the next 10 years after that, people saw in 07-08.

Christi Reece: 14:16

I had oil workers in every house on my block, it seemed like. You know, they were just they were everywhere.

Nathan Perry: 14:21

Yeah, and if they weren't employed directly by um an oil company, then they worked for a construction company that was probably being hired by the oil company. And so that's that's the supply chain and you know what we call multiplier effects. So um I can't remember what the numbers in that study showed, but we were at least able to quantify it. But I can tell you what's happened since then. You know, oil and gas in the region has been falling on average between five and ten percent, uh, regardless of how you measure it. You know, I covered that in my newsletter. There's a there's a graph in the energy section um that that shows that it's been on a downward volatile march. You know, it swings down and almost you know up and down with the net price of natural gas. And so what would be nice for the industry and for the region is if that that industry could just kind of start moving horizontally. You know, I don't think a downtrend is good, um, especially for places like Western Garfield. You know, Mesa is big enough that we can absorb a lot of those jobs, but there are other regions, you know, coal up in Craig and oil and gas in Western Garfield, where that's really the key industry. You know, a lot of other sub-industries exist around that key industry that will also go away.

Christi Reece: 15:38

So I feel like um Mace County has done a good job of attempting to diversify um so that it's not just relying on outdoor recreation or energy sector. Um do you feel that that that's been a um a conscious, intentional kind of shift?

Nathan Perry: 15:57

Yeah, I do. Um, you know, this is an interesting town because there's so much emphasis on economic development. I think after the oil and gas downturn, you know, we when and it was more than oil and gas, we had a real estate and oil and gas bubble here, so it was worse than the rest of the nation that just had a real estate bubble. But um, you know, after that, I think a lot of people saw we, you know, we don't necessarily want to attack oil and gas. You know, we want the industry to be uh a contributing industry, but there are some things out of our control, so how do we what can we do? You know, and well you can build up other industries, and then if oil and gas goes up, great, you know, we get that contribution. But if oil and gas goes down, which it has since uh oh nine, um then you have all these other base industries, and that's exactly what you see, you know, and I have that in the energy section as or I can't remember what section it's in, maybe it's in the industry section, but uh you know, healthcare has grown like crazy in the last five years, really in the last 15 years. And a lot of the you know, we've seen a lot of other industries besides oil and gas grow, whereas oil and gas has shrunk, and so that the math on that, you know, is basically we're more diversified. But even if oil and gas would have stayed at the 2010 levels, all non-oil and gas industries have grown pretty solidly. And so by any measure, you can it's really hard to argue that Mesa County is not more diversified away from that one. Now, we're not diversified away from healthcare. But see, the difference is I mean, healthcare is a behemoth here. If if if there were swings in healthcare like there were in oil and gas, this town would be a mess. You know, but uh fortunately our biggest industry now, which is healthcare, is extremely stable. So you don't see a lot of layoffs, you know, COVID was as crazy as it gets, you know, with healthcare, and you saw a lot of nurses uh, you know, you did see a downturn in employment and healthcare, but since about 22, maybe late 21, we've seen just skyrocket employment and healthcare.

Christi Reece: 17:59

I maybe should have mentioned at the beginning of this that I uh dropped out of college economics because I thought it was really difficult. Um, my teacher and I went to Southern Methodist University and my professor there um spoke in terms of fast cars and um cigars and bourbon, as is commodities. Sounds very Texas. Yeah, it was it was um maybe I need to be more Texas. But um uh do you think that um because the oil and gas uh was shrinking in this area that the others filled the void or would they have grown anyway?

Nathan Perry: 18:37

I think they would have grown anyways. Um don't get me wrong, I see the effort that a lot of commissioners and city council and GJEP and the chamber and all these different organizations put in. That's kind of what I was hinting at earlier. It's an interesting town because people care about economic development, you know. Other towns, other places, you know, like bigger cities, they're sick of growth. You know, it's only the you know, the the then if you talk to anybody from Denver, it's like, oh my gosh, it's so crazy. Too big, yeah. Why are all these people why are there all these people? Um but they can say that because they haven't had the type of downswing that Mace County experienced or the Western Slope experienced, and you realize, wow, we've got to make something happen if that happens again. And uh I feel like that's kind of the mentality.

Christi Reece: 19:25

So let's talk about the future of the different sectors and what jobs do you see being uh, you know, really big in growth in the next 10, 20 years?

Nathan Perry: 19:37

Yeah, um, well, I think healthcare is gonna continue to grow because there's a rural healthcare funding issue that's gonna hurt a lot of our surrounding counties, and not just in Colorado, but across the nation. And it's gonna push more of the healthcare needs to the healthcare centers and Grand Junction's a healthcare center. So I think we're gonna see a lot of growth in healthcare continue.

Christi Reece: 19:56

Aaron Ross Powell That's gonna affect our population as well, assuming that some of these people from the mountain towns and the rural communities are gonna actually move to healthcare centers as opposed to staying in the small towns.

Nathan Perry: 20:08

Yeah, well, and that's that's the question. You know, how responsive are people who live in these places going to be to moving closer to the health care? It depends on their age and depends on their health. Um, you know, of course, Mesa County skews more towards retirees. We have a big baby boom population in Mesa County compared to the state of Colorado, which has a huge millennial population. Um so you know, the Taylor Swift album was a big deal in Colorado, but not so much in Mesa County. Uh so you know, the age of our population also, and and the fact that a lot of people retire here. You know, it's a great place to retire. Um it's warmer, you've got a healthcare center, uh, there are a lot of people, you know, of retiree age, um, their things to do. So um that's gonna put upward pressure on health care, you know, with that because when uh you should know in real estate, I mean, who are you selling most of your homes to?

Christi Reece: 21:02

Well, a lot of retirees. Right. Yeah, and the um the prices have continued to appreciate, and uh even with um more houses on the market, we're not seeing the median price go down. Right. And so it's just harder and harder for the young folks, young families to come here. Um hopefully we get some interest rate reductions that will help change that a little bit. But I think the uh apartment uh situation has been really good, and at least there's some um reasonable places for people to stay, um, younger families and things. But of course, we believe in building wealth and home ownership, so we want to get those people into homes, but it's with the cost of construction, it's getting really hard to build an affordable entry-level home.

Nathan Perry: 21:49

It's concerning, and it's you know, I I sound like I I probably talk about this too much, you know. No, you don't, this is your job. But um, I think it's one of our bigger issues. You know, we talk about population growth. Oh, why aren't young people having kids? Why aren't they getting married? Well, it's because they don't have the same opportunities.

Christi Reece: 22:07

They're scared to death. I've got an 18-year-old and a 20-year-old, and they think there's no way I'll ever be able to afford a home.

Nathan Perry: 22:13

That's right. It's the same thing with my students. Um, you know, we population growth is one of the most important issues in economics, so I talk about it a lot, and I like to, you know, I I get access to all these young people and I get to try and figure out what the trends are with different generations. And you know, it's when you grow up in a house with the play set in the back, you don't want to start a family in an apartment. Now, lots of cultures have families around.

Christi Reece: 22:42

Yes. Even in the East Coast, on a lot of the United States, and I think that's something in the West that we have to start thinking about.

Nathan Perry: 22:49

But humans care about relative status. You know, that's ingrained in our hindbrain. And, you know, I I think that's a holdup for a lot of young people. They're like, well, I'm not where I'm supposed to be to where I'm supposed to be buying a house yet. And then the affordability, you know, we're building a ton of multifamily units, which is great, but it's not going to build wealth. You know, versus I I bought a starter home, you know, in 2005. Um unfortunately I sold it in 2010, so I didn't make any equity. But uh, you know, um that's what you're supposed to do. You're supposed to find a an old crappy house and fix it up when you're young and um you know, you sell it and move on to the next. But if you don't get into that first one, it's hard to hard to do. And uh interest rates are making it prohibitive for buyers and sellers don't want to lower their price. And um we're gonna need a lot more inventory hitting the market to force that price down. You're starting to see a rise, but not it's still not a buyer's market yet. I think what's month supply of inventory at in May side have to have three, yeah. So we need to get to five or six for the price to fall. Yeah. And we're not there yet.

Christi Reece: 23:59

Agree. Um, it occurs to me that there's a lot of psychology in economics.

Nathan Perry: 24:06

Yes. Isn't there? Yeah.

Christi Reece: 24:08

It's not just numbers.

Nathan Perry: 24:10

No, um, there's a lot of numbers though. Uh so many numbers. Uh yeah, I think you know, economics is trying to figure out how humans behave together and what the outcomes of that collective behavior mean for our standard of living, you know. And so you can't just assume that everybody acts a certain way and that you're going to see certain outcomes over time. You know, one thing I emphasize in my classes is what we call institutions. And that's culture, that can be religion, that can be government, that can be, you know, certain cultural trends and intergenerational trends. And um, you know, millennials are and institutions shape economics, but then economics shape institutions and behavior. So for instance, you know, in 2010, the millennials were had a 10% unemployment rate. They all hit the job market and they couldn't find work.

Christi Reece: 25:07

So what did so what did they do?

Nathan Perry: 25:08

Well, they delayed starting families, right? They did not get married, they did not buy housing, they got into pub culture. So IPA beer became really cool with the millennials, you know, drinking, millennials drank off the charts compared to other generations.

Christi Reece: 25:23

I was just reading about the craft brewer breweries um all going out of business now. So many of them.

Nathan Perry: 25:29

Because the millennials are too old to drink all the time because they have responsibilities now, but Gen Z doesn't drink.

Christi Reece: 25:35

Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 25:36

And so you can see this with um with stock prices of alcohol, you know. And so Gen Z is different. They're very entrepreneurial, you know, they're very concerned about housing, they're afraid of each other because of the culture wars. And uh, you know, I'm I I I like Gen Z a lot, but they, you know, we'll see what happens with them. Yeah.

Christi Reece: 26:01

So um let's circle back to other job uh opportunities for Mesa County and Western Colorado. Um pretty different in other regions of uh Western Colorado because a lot of those towns are tourist economies, right?

Nathan Perry: 26:19

Yeah, I mean we have a lot of tourism here. Um, but uh you know, because we're bigger, it doesn't show up as much as say if you, you know, are in Vail, where tourism is like a huge thing. Um so we have a good size tourism industry here. I mean, we have magnificent trails, there's tons of public land, so it definitely makes a difference here.

Christi Reece: 26:41

Um and I do think that could be a growing sector for us because uh from a realtor's perspective, we feel like we're being discovered all the time. You know, we go through these surges where we get phone calls from people going, man, I I've never heard of Grand Junction, and I just read about it, and I want to come there, and and we see surges of growth and it gets exciting, and then I feel like it settles down a little bit, and then it comes again in these kind of waves, and I feel like there's this constant um uh discovering of Grand Junction, which is kind of cool.

Nathan Perry: 27:14

Yeah. Um, well, you know, we're still more affordable than the front range. And this isn't, you know, the West in general is just insane. You know, the millennials flock to Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, and all of those states are unaffordable now. But in but Grand Junction in Colorado, we're still cheaper than other places. And so if we can provide job opportunities, then that's a great settling point for young people who maybe want to start families. So yeah, and so you know, healthcare is a big one. I think um heavy and light industry is uh uh is great for this town, especially with the federal government um, you know, emphasis on reshoring um supply chains. I think there are some opportunities there. You know, curtis at GGPs on on top of who they're recruiting, it's it's hard for me to to kind of to say what industries are my favorite, but those are those are two that I think are universally liked.

Christi Reece: 28:17

So and we have still a lot of land to develop in this community. You know, I grew up in Lake City. Yeah, and um the population is never gonna get very big there because there is just is not the uh private land to be developed. And that's a way in a lot of the smaller towns.

Nathan Perry: 28:36

Right. Uh I mean if you go north, there's a ton of development. It's crazy. Um even up I was up in the ridge, I went to the ridges 360, or what's that called? I went to the Prada. Yeah, Red Land. Okay, sorry. Um I'm like, oh my gosh, I didn't even know that this space existed.

Christi Reece: 28:51

You know, 660 acres right in the middle of the Redlands.

Nathan Perry: 28:55

I mean, we were a couple ridges over up in the ridges, and uh I was I was surprised. So, you know, we still are capped by um federal land around us. So it's you know, what is it, 73% public land in Mace County, but we still, you know, there's still room to expand. Um, you know, hopefully we can do it in a way that doesn't ruin the uh the charm of the place. That's always the problem with rural economic development is people move here, you know, t because they like the charm, but then more people move here and then some of the charm goes away. So how do you how do you balance that? It it's hard as an economist because um you know you want to see growth because it lifts up everybody's standard of living. And uh and so how how do you do that, but still keep the small town feel? One thing I like about living in a smaller city is you know, my is what I tell people is everything's 15 minutes away here. You know, versus when I lived in Salt Lake, it was a 45 minute drive to the University of Utah, you know, it was 30 minutes to American Express. Oh boy, you you should you leave at five o'clock. I mean, who knows how long it's gonna be? Depends if there's an accident. And the same thing in Denver, you know.

Christi Reece: 30:08

Um there's an accident here, you know about it. Yeah, you can go around it pretty easily.

Nathan Perry: 30:13

Yeah, I've noticed the last 10 years there's a little bit more traffic on Patterson these days. You know, so I'm like, oh, do we have rush hour now? Is that a thing here? I so so how how to balance those things is tough, I think. Um but overall for this town, I think that having more economic opportunities is good. Yeah.

Christi Reece: 30:34

A lot of your studies uh revolve around population too, growth and decline and and the trends that you're seeing. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Grand Junction and especially the um the birth rates?

Nathan Perry: 30:46

Yeah. So um, you know, Colorado in general kind of has a demographic problem. The we're mostly millennial, the millennials didn't have a lot of kids, and so we're kind of uh aging without young people to come in and replace. Um, you know, we call it the demographic cliff in academia, where uh, you know, 2026, 18 years after the Great Recession, there's uh there's gonna be a drop in just the number of 18-year-olds. And um so Mesa County counters uh a lower birth rate um with a high migration rate. So we see a ton of retirees move here, which by the way, generally have money and stabilize the economy. Um so not only are we you know building a lot of different industries that are you know healthcare is fairly recession proof. Um in terms of employment. I know they lose a lot of money when there's recessions, but you know, in terms of employment, um they you know you don't generally see a lot of layoffs. Um but uh you know retirees they just keep spending unless there's inflation. And so we saw the inflation hit hurt retirees. Uh but generally speaking, retirees also help to stabilize the economy. And so in a weird twist of fate, you know, Grand Junction I think is set up to be pretty um insulated from what we might see with national business cycles. But more than other places.

Christi Reece: 32:20

How has the is there uh data about the average age of our resident and how has that changed over the last 25 years?

Nathan Perry: 32:28

It's pretty it stayed fairly consistent. We're we're always high in the the older age group, you know, 60s, um, what you think of the baby boomer group right now, you know, whatever that was 25 years ago. Um so it's just because of the retirees, whereas we skew uh lower with younger generations, especially millennials. But whereas you if you look at Denver, it's just this huge spike is a ton of millennials in Denver. That's the millennial city, it's like their capital.

Christi Reece: 32:57

So and what are some of the dangers of this kind of aging population? Um you said retirees we tend to have a little bit more stable economy, but let's talk about schools and what's happening there. And how does that affect our economy?

Nathan Perry: 33:12

Yeah, well, you know, we've seen some schools shut down, and um this is this is an issue not just in Mesa County, you know, this is an issue across the nation. The birth rates have fallen. You know, in Colorado they've fallen, even in my home state of Utah, which is known for high birth rates, it's fallen. Big families and that's right, and but people can't afford it.

Christi Reece: 33:32

And so um You wouldn't know if you go to the Parade of Homes out there. Unbelievable, it's mind-blowing.

Nathan Perry: 33:39

Yeah, it it really is. Um yeah. In fact, I just made that comment to my wife when we were at the Grand Junction Parade Home. The kids were really impressed. They're like, wow, these are mansions. I'm like, you know, let's go to the Pareto Homes in Denver or Salt Lake, and you'll you'll see castles. People have too much of it. St. George.

Christi Reece: 33:56

It's crazy. Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 33:57

But um But the the the population growth is a is a national issue. I mean, it's become a bit politicized as everything in this world, unfortunately, but you know, we're not at replacement rate. You need two people for every two adults, and we're not meeting that standard. And so you have a couple of options from an economic perspective when you're not uh, you know, at that rate. Uh you can import people, so you can have immigration, or you can you can do what Elon's doing and you can build robots. Um, you know, I that's kind of a joke, but it's kind of serious. Um, that's what Japan's done. So Japan has had uh a population that has not replaced itself for quite some time. So how have they been able to produce stuff? Well, they're extremely good with robotics and technology because they don't they can't bring in a bunch of cheap workers to do work in factories, they have to have robotics. And so, you know, the United States globally is kind of in a good position because if we need more people, it's easy to import people. Now, I know immigration's political, definitely not going to get into that, but just thinking in terms of purely labor supply, if we had a major labor supply issue, you know, we could solve that fairly quickly. Now there might be some cost to that, some political turmoil, but generally speaking, you know, we can bring people in. Versus other parts of the world where that's a lot more difficult. You know, Japan's an island. Um they could try and import people, but it it's it's more complicated.

Christi Reece: 35:33

Oh, interesting.

Nathan Perry: 35:34

But if you don't have more people, then you have to focus more on technology to produce stuff. And um, you know, uh there's been this crazy shift in the last two years. You know, five years ago, the argument the argument was we need more people in the United States. And now I'm looking at Elon's Optimus robots and I'm thinking, you know, do we need more? I mean, these robots might produce we are in an interesting world. I don't know what's gonna happen. But if robots can legitimately take a lot of the production process out of the hands of humans, you know, I think it changes the growth um argument for needing more people. So I don't I don't know how it's gonna play out. I'm watching with fascination whatever's put here.

Christi Reece: 36:20

And it's changing so quickly.

Nathan Perry: 36:21

All I know is I'm buying one of those robots immediately.

Christi Reece: 36:24

Okay.

Nathan Perry: 36:24

It's gonna do my dishes and uh full laundry, and I'm gonna have it punish my kids so I don't have to deal with it.

Christi Reece: 36:31

Perfect. I want to talk a little bit about um CMU and uh tell us what courses you teach and and what you love about teaching uh college kids.

Nathan Perry: 36:44

Yeah, well, um I teach a lot of classes. I used to teach a lot more. I've kind of got it narrowed down these days. I teach intermediate macroeconomics and I teach money and banking, and I sometimes teach international economics. We're running that again in the spring because it's very topical right now. And then I teach this class called Econometrics, which is uh fancy economics and statistics class. That's how I did that realtor study with the home amenities, and and then I teach intro classes.

Christi Reece: 37:14

And uh that still sounds like a lot, Nathan.

Nathan Perry: 37:16

It it is. Uh it's four classes a semester, but uh, you know, I've been doing it a long time, and um, you know, I do so much other work that a lot of the economic stuff is just in my head.

Christi Reece: 37:29

And so and it begins to cross over. You use the data and that's exactly it.

Nathan Perry: 37:34

You know, um, you know, a lot of the work I do ends up in the classroom, and I tell stories about, you know, writing these newsletters, I show the newsletters, or I'll pull up a study. We we use some of my data sets from some of like the house price study, you know, we use that in my econometrics class. And um so you know, what do I like about teaching? You know, as I get older, I feel like it keeps me young. You know, it's weird to say, but you know, my kids keep me young, but they're they're little. Like college kids are uh adults, but they're college kids, you know. And so um and so it's just interesting to see what's going on in their lives and you know to know what's going on. For instance, um, you know, I'm gonna make fun of the millennials a little bit more here. So, you know, they don't like Taylor Swift. Uh you know, they're just they've moved on, Gen Z, you know, it's just not for them. And uh and I wouldn't have known that, you know, because I'm technically a millennial. And so that's all I hear from people. But you know, you you kind of see when the trends change and how how culture's changing. Um yeah, you know, you see where you get outdated, I'll I'll have a reference to something, and the students will be like, what? I'm like, oh, that was too many years ago. You have no idea what I'm talking about, you know. Because I started teaching when I was this is insane to say, but I mean I taught my first class when I was 23 or 24 years old. Wow. You know, my second year of grad school, I started way too young. But uh, you know, so I was peers at the time and they understood all my references, you know. Right. Now that I'm in my 40s, I have to actually think about these things, you know. I can't I make a terminator reference uh about robots.

Christi Reece: 39:18

How many kids are gonna have to understand?

Nathan Perry: 39:20

Who knows what I'm talking about? And then I gotta come up with something else that's you know not from the 80s. So, you know, it forces me to and I go home and I'll ask my son who's a teenager.

Christi Reece: 39:30

I'm like, okay, you know Do you know what this is?

Nathan Perry: 39:32

Yeah, who's this guy on YouTube? Or who's someone I can yeah? It's so it's uh I don't know, there are a lot of things I like about it. I like getting up in front of people, I like public speaking, you know, and I think teaching is just kind of a mini form of public speaking.

Christi Reece: 39:47

Well, you do a great job. Everything I've ever attended that you've presented to, I I think has been fantastic, and you have everybody in the palm of your hands.

Nathan Perry: 39:56

Well, thank you. I appreciate that. I sure enjoy it. And you know, I I'm good at that stuff because I've been teaching for so long. You know, I know how to toy with the audience and kind of you know keep them awake.

Christi Reece: 40:08

Yeah. And uh yeah, from teaching, you've got to keep those teenagers awake. But uh all the adults have sleep issues now too, right? That's right.

Nathan Perry: 40:18

Yeah. Well, you know, we've all got sleep issues, I think. Uh, but yeah.

Christi Reece: 40:23

Um I kind of want to wrap up with um just some uh advice and outlook for small business owners. I'm a small business owner uh here in Mesa County. What do I need to be thinking about and paying attention to? And um, as I was mentioning, I I was reading the article about a lot of craft breweries uh really having a hard time and a lot of them going bankrupt across the country now. And um was reading about one that was shutting down, and and they said, you know, we just were we saw unlimited potential and we weren't paying enough attention to certain data points to show us what was really happening in the industry. Uh we're working on passion. So as as a small business owner, uh what kind of advice can you give folks here?

Nathan Perry: 41:06

Yeah, well, I think small business is the place to be right now. You know, you're seeing a lot of bigger corporations. It's a race to implement AI, which is great if you're gonna, you know, if you have a job at a corporation, but um what we're seeing is uh you know, we're seeing eight 16 to 24 year olds have an 11% unemployment rate right now. Well, well, why is that? Well, that's because AI is eliminating a lot of entry-level positions. And so I I don't think it's gonna stay that high forever. I think this is just a you know, people are figuring out how to employ. It's a transition. It's a transition. Um and so, you know, one thing I try to work with my students on is you know, yeah, you want to get a job and get experience, but you can also start your own business, you know, and you can actually buy your own business. There are businesses for sale, especially if you go to a bigger city. And there are a lot of retiring baby boomers who would love to sell you that business and teach you how to run it. And um and so that's what we try to do with our business program is you know, you take all sorts of classes, accounting and finance and marketing and you know, management, so you have all those skills. So um so I like the small business space economically. Obviously, it's a huge job creator. Um, but if I were to give advice to small business owners, it would be, you know, start and think how you can implement AI into a lot of your processes. It's uh it's a crazy tool, and it's getting smarter weekly. It's actually starting to scare me. So I can do some I can build some crazy models in AI. And not all small businesses need you know that type of stuff, but you can you can program it for some very basic tasks. And uh that's gonna be a big productivity driver for um a lot of small businesses. So I think that's kind of the big trend right now.

Christi Reece: 43:00

I was just at uh we had realtor day today um with some speakers, and one was focusing on AI, and he put up a slide that said, I want a vote of everybody in the room. Do you think that AI is going to um cause job loss, uh, and a break-even or job creation? And it was about, you know, a third for each group. But what what's your what's your thoughts on that? Do you think it's uh a job creator in the end after the transition?

Nathan Perry: 43:29

Yeah, you know, this is a hundreds of year old debate between Adam Smith and Karl Marx. You know, Adam Smith argued that capital and labor are complements, that when you have new technology and new inventions that can do things, that that frees up resources that then those workers will go into. And he's been right, you know, since he made the argument. And then you have Marx that said, listen, capital and labor are substitutes. And if you know AI is going to replace all of us and we're gonna have too many people unemployed, and we're going to need a universal basic income. You know, this comes up every technological cycle. And so far, you know, Adam Smith is, I don't know, what the record, 12 and oh? I don't know. I'm just making that up. You know, I don't think we're at the point where robots and AI are going to take all of our jobs yet. The question is, is how is this gonna enhance productivity so other people and then what are those other people gonna move towards? You know, what's gonna be the new industry where we employ the labor force?

Christi Reece: 44:34

Trevor Burrus, Jr. But who could have uh envisioned the money that people are making on social media just as influencers? I mean, what a crazy career.

Nathan Perry: 44:46

It is a crazy career. And I don't like it because then my kids think that they can be social media influences, but then I see how much money the social media influences I think make, and I think, man, should I teach my kids to be so funny?

Christi Reece: 44:58

I know.

Nathan Perry: 44:59

No, just kidding. But uh yeah, it's I mean you're right. Um and you you just don't know what's gonna you don't know what's gonna hit, you know. And I it's hard for me to predict, too.

Christi Reece: 45:12

Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 45:13

I just have no idea where this is gonna go.

Christi Reece: 45:15

As much data as you have in your head.

Nathan Perry: 45:16

You know, I I do a lot of reading and um I don't know. You know, we're have an aging population, are those people gonna move into healthcare? That's something that can happen. Are uh are we gonna see a lot more robotics built and we'll need to move people into factories or to be engineers to build the robots? I don't know.

Christi Reece: 45:36

Yeah.

Nathan Perry: 45:37

Um interesting things to think about. You know, by the end of our lives, you know, we could have AI-powered robot assistants. Isn't that crazy to think about?

Christi Reece: 45:49

So if you're willing, uh what advice do you give to your teenager about what are some good career paths for you? Yeah, considering AI and what's happening.

Nathan Perry: 46:01

Sure. Well, you know, um and not social media influencer. Yeah, well, you know, you can do that on the side. That can be their side gig. And then I'll be happy about it. Um Right.

Christi Reece: 46:11

If they're in finance and they we have a big following because of their financial knowledge, great.

Nathan Perry: 46:15

Yeah. Well, you know, I love uh I I still think business, you know, a general business skill set is still important because robotics and AI can't replace a lot of the things that small businesses do. And I think that's where a lot of the employment growth is going to be. You know, if you're at a mass scale, I worry about corporate employment, certain roles, not all roles, just certain roles. But small businesses generally, they're you know, they're gonna employ AI and technology in smaller ways that may require more people to employ them. And um so you know, and I this is why I tell my this is why I've been emphasizing business ownership and thinking about business, because I I just think that's that's a great path. Um I love engineering. I think um, you know, I think the world needs more engineers. Um anything in the health sciences I think is fantastic. Uh the trades are great. You know, I grew up in a trades family, electrician, plumber, welders, you know, making good money right now.

Christi Reece: 47:16

Yeah, it seems like there's a lot of uh growth potential in those industries.

Nathan Perry: 47:20

Yeah, so you know, we haven't seen that much, you know. AI hasn't destroyed any sort of education paths quite yet, I don't think. Um I I still think there's demand for things once we get over this kind of ress we're in a labor market recession right now, which makes it a little bit tough to talk about it this second. But um the labor market recession won't last. Uh we're not in a normal recession, GDP's strong, but the labor market is, you know, if you get unemployed, um it's one of the worst times to look for a job since 2013, actually.

Christi Reece: 47:54

Wow.

Nathan Perry: 47:54

And um but but not very many people are getting fired, but then nobody's getting hired. That's that's the labor market right now, so it's very strange. So let's see, I said business, engineering, health, care, and trades. I'd say those would be my top four.

Christi Reece: 48:11

Okay, awesome. Yeah, I hope people are taking note of this, especially teenagers.

Nathan Perry: 48:16

Yeah.

Christi Reece: 48:17

Nathan, it's been a real pleasure. I thank you for taking time out of your busy schedule to talk with us, and I hope we get lots of listeners. I think it's just um fascinating, and I appreciate all the work that you do, which really helps support economic growth in our region.

Nathan Perry: 48:30

Well, thank you. I appreciate having me. It was a lot of fun. And yeah, if you uh if you don't don't mind me telling people where the newsletters are at, you can go to CMU's website and just type in economic center or economic newsletter and uh should pop up and you can sign up for any of the counties uh that I cover. So thanks.

Christi Reece: 48:48

Awesome. I actually considering um enrolling at CMU to take some of your classes. I think it'd be great if I can finish an economics class.

Nathan Perry: 48:56

I'm more interesting than the other economists.

Christi Reece: 48:58

I bet you are. Yeah. Thank you again. This has been Christi Reece with Nathan Perry for the Full Circle Podcast, and we'll see you next time. Thanks. Thanks for listening. This is Christi Reece signing out from the Full Circle Podcast.